For decades, military acquisition has been optimized for control and compliance. It has not been optimized for speed, iteration, or user choice. The forthcoming Army UAS Marketplace represents a structural shift in the way systems are acquired. It will introduce sustained competition among vendors and empower Soldiers to choose the best products for their missions. I predict it will serve as a model for other organizations, enabling them to field better products and to iterate them faster. Army Best Drone Warfighter Competition Last week, the Army Aviation Association of America hosted the inaugural Army Best Drone Warfighter Competition at the …

The Army is about to upend military acquisition Read more »

Shortly after midnight Moscow time on the 27th of September 1983, Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov saved the world. This incident, unknown outside of the Soviet air defense forces until 1998, is a highly relevant case study as we accelerate the pace of automation and artificial intelligence in complex military systems. Cold War backdrop Cold War tensions between the US/NATO and USSR/Warsaw Pact were higher than they’d been since the Cuban Missile Crisis. Both sides had intermediate-range nuclear missiles on alert, treaty negotiations were breaking down, and NATO was preparing to deploy upgraded Pershing II and additional Ground Launched Cruise Missile systems …

Artificial Intelligence and Human Judgement: A Cold War Cautionary Tale Read more »

⚠️ Contains spoilers, if you’re the type of person who cares. ⚠️ Netflix’s thriller A House of Dynamite raises important, modern-day questions about our nation’s nuclear deterrence strategy and missile defense capabilities, but it ultimately fell flat for me. With an all-star cast and the Oscar-winning director of The Hurt Locker, it’s still worth a watch for a realistic fictionalized glimpse into the workings of our nation’s ICBM response. Just don’t expect deep insights. The Cold War never truly ended Wikipedia will tell you that the Cold War ended in 1991 as the US-Soviet Union relationship improved, new treaties on …

“A House of Dynamite” Movie Review Read more »

I am a fan of solving problems with market-inspired solutions; markets efficiently allocate resources and drive innovation through decentralized decision-making. Earlier this year, I wrote about how modular, open systems architectures (MOSAs) could enable a competitive solution marketplace, allowing warfighters to pick the best solution for their mission and generating competition among solution providers. Less than two months later, we learned that Ukraine is actually doing it. Soldiers in drone units earn points based on confirmed kills, which they can exchange for new gear in the Brave1 Market. The scheme benefits the war effort by bypassing bureaucratic acquisition processes and …

Gamified warfare: Ukraine’s arms marketplace experiment Read more »

Our world and our systems are safer than ever. A major reason why is that we’ve learned from prior mistakes. Many of our practices, rules, and standards are “written in blood” from past, tragic failures. We learn so that we don’t repeat the same mistakes. Of course, we first identify the proximate causes—the specific events directly leading to a casualty. To truly learn, we must take a step back to examine the larger context: what were the preceding holes in the Swiss cheese, and how do we account for them in our systems engineering practice? This approach is increasingly important …

Written in Blood: Case Studies of Systems Engineering Failure Read more »

One of my favorite items in my small model collection is a 1:34 scale Grumman Long Life Vehicle (LLV) with sliding side doors, a roll-up rear hatch, and pull-back propulsion. The iconic vehicle has been plying our city streets for nearly 40 years, reliably delivering critical communiques, bills, checks, advertisements, Dear John letters, junk mail, magazines, catalogs, post cards from afar, chain letters, and Amazon packages.

The Navy installed touch-screen steering systems to save money. Ten sailors paid with their lives. ProPublica Ten sailors died after the crew of the destroyer USS John S. McCain lost control of their vessel, causing a collision with the merchant tanker Alnic MC. There was nothing technically wrong with the vessel or its controls. Though much of the blame was put on the Sailors and Officers aboard, the real fault rests with the design of the Integrated Bridge & Navigation System (IBNS).